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How much learning students lose during school closures varies significantly by access to remote learning, the quality of remote instruction, home support, and the degree of engagement. We then evaluated this information in the context of three different epidemiological scenarios. The models were based on academic studies of the effectiveness of remote learning relative to traditional classroom instruction for three different kinds of students. To that end, we created statistical models to estimate the potential impact of school closures on learning. In this article, we explore the possible long-term damage of COVID-19–related school closures on low-income, black, and Hispanic Americans, and on the US economy. Please email us at: estimates were made before schools closed and the transition to remote learning began, sometimes chaotically.
If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. If the income-achievement gap had been closed, we estimate that US GDP would have been $332 billion to $550 billion higher (Exhibit 1). The increase in dollar values is the result of an increase in proportion of black and Hispanic people in the workforce and higher GDP base value in 2019. Hispanic students scored, on average, 26 points lower than white students did on eighth-grade NAEP math assessments in 2007 in 2019 they scored 24 points lower. Black students scored, on average, 31 points lower than white students did on eighth-grade National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) math assessments in 2007 in 2019 they scored 32 points lower. The learning gap has remained almost the same between 2007 (the year of the latest data when we published our 2009 report) and 2019. We estimate that if the black and Hispanic student-achievement gap had been closed in 2009, today’s US GDP would have been $426 billion to $705 billion higher. Reardon, “The widening academic achievement gap between the rich and the poor: New evidence and possible explanations,” in Greg Duncan and Richard Murnane (Eds.), Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality and the Uncertain Life Chances of Low-Income Children, New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2011. 26764, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2020 S. SES-Achievement Gap, NBER Working Paper No. The average black or Hispanic student remains roughly two years behind the average white one, and low-income students continue to be underrepresented among top performers. Unfortunately, the past decade has seen little progress in narrowing these disparities. Together, they were the equivalent of a permanent economic recession. Yet poverty alone cannot account for the gaps in educational performance. 1įor both 20, we use $25,000 in annual income (in 2009 constant dollars) as the cutoff between low and high income.Īlthough we calculate these two gaps separately, we recognize that black and Hispanic students are also more likely to live in poverty. The achievement gap between high- and low-income students was even larger, at $400 billion to $670 billion, 3 to 5 percent of GDP. In 2009, we estimated that the gap between white students and black and Hispanic ones deprived the US economy of $310 billion to $525 billion a year in productivity, equivalent to 2 to 4 percent of GDP. This could have long-term effects on these children’s long-term economic well-being and on the US economy as a whole.ĭespite the enormous attention devoted to the achievement gap, it has remained a stubborn feature of the US education system.
School shutdowns could not only cause disproportionate learning losses for these students-compounding existing gaps-but also lead more of them to drop out. Teachers, administrators, and parents have worked hard to keep learning alive nevertheless, these efforts are not likely to provide the quality of education that’s delivered in the classroom.Įven more troubling is the context: the persistent achievement disparities across income levels and between white students and students of black and Hispanic heritage. The US education system was not built to deal with extended shutdowns like those imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic.